Before the 2024-25 season, Saturday’s showdown in Chapel Hill was easily circled as the ACC’s most important game of the year.
The North Carolina Tar Heels breezed through the conference with a 25-6 regular-season record a year ago, drawing a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and the Duke Blue Devils brought in four five-star freshmen after a run to the Elite Eight. The two most storied programs in the state looked ready to battle for the ACC title once again in a race that would surely come down to the wire, right?
Right?
It didn’t take long for visions of a back-and-forth battle to evaporate into smoke. The Tar Heels lost five of their first 11 games while the Blue Devils ripped off 16 wins in a row from November through February. When UNC left Cameron Indoor Stadium on February 1, it sat five games behind Duke in the conference standings.
Thanks to a recent run of seven wins in eight games, however, the Tar Heels still have an outside shot at the NCAA Tournament despite their 20-11 record. A Duke upset in the final regular-season game could cement their case, but fans in Chapel Hill shouldn’t hold their breath.
Here are three key reasons why the Blue Devils will sweep UNC for the second time in three years.
North Carolina’s recent form is a product of its schedule
This isn’t the same Tar Heels team that left Durham with its tail between its legs five months ago. On the morning of February 2, UNC was 13-10 for the season with four losses in its last five games, but it’s 7-1 since. Part of that is a revamped offense averaging 90.8 points over the last six games thanks to the emergence of freshman Ian Jackson, but North Carolina hasn’t been battle-tested over that span. The Tar Heels have only played one top-50 team in the KenPom rankings since that first Duke loss, the Clemson Tigers, and they lost that game by 20. In fact, the only other opponent over this recent run within KenPom’s top 90 was the Pittsburgh Panthers, and UNC won that game by a single point at home.
The strides made over the last five weeks in Chapel Hill can’t be completely ignored, but there’s a solid chance smoke and mirrors are involved.
Duke’s success over the last month stems from unstoppable fundamental basketball
When Clemson handed Duke its only conference loss of the season thus far back on February 8, the easy culprit was the Blue Devils’ rebounding. Duke only grabbed 23 boards to the Tigers’ 36, a hole too deep for the offense to dig out of.
In the seven games since, the Blue Devils have averaged 41.0 rebounds for a +81 differential with 13.3 offensive boards. Combine that with an offense shooting 41.8% from 3-point range and averaging 19.3 assists, and it’s easy to see why Duke has won every game on this run by at least 18 points. Head coach Jon Scheyer’s team has a surplus of shooting talent on a roster full of stars willing to pass, and that team gives itself 10 more chances per game than its opponents. Teams need a whole lot to go their way to contend with this Blue Devils squad.
The 17-point margin of victory in the first matchup didn’t reflect how lopsided that game was
The first rivalry showdown between Duke and UNC wasn’t the biggest blowout of the year. In fact, the Tar Heels are one of four ACC teams to play the Blue Devils within 20 points at Cameron this season. But don’t let that number fool you. Duke built a 25-8 lead out of the gates and led 40-13 with five minutes left in the first half. That was a 30-point game in which Duke just lost focus over the final minutes, allowing an 18-8 run at the buzzer. When the Blue Devils were locked in, North Carolina had no answers for their pace in transition or 3-point threats. Duke dominated the paint and the perimeter until the score was too big for anything to matter, and that’s more representative of this year’s talent gap.
